Germany+SFAR

Marc Weinheimer, //Writing For Intelligence 1 November 2009 //

=**It Is Likely That Drug Trafficking, Radical Islamic Terrorism, And Illegal Immigration Will Remain The Most Pressing Transnational Issues Currently Facing Germany **=

It is likely that drug trafficking, radical Islamic terrorism, and illegal immigration will remain the most pressing transnational issues currently facing Germany. In the realm of drug trafficking, Germany acts as a source for chemicals to produce South American drugs, Germany acts as a transshipment point for South West Asian heroin and it also acts as a financial center for drug cartels. Radical Islamic terrorism is an imminent threat to Germany. This is evident by the German government's action of raising the terrorism alert level after three videos made by Islamic terrorists circulated throughout Germany. Illegal immigration poses a threat to Germany due to the increased numbers of immigrants and the benefits they could receive from the German government, thus placing a financial burden on the government.
 * Executive Summary: **


 * Discussion: **
 * In Germany, it is the responsibility of the Federal Criminal Police Office to prosecute people who are responsible for transporting illicit drugs into the country. Their main objective is to thwart the organizations who are responsible for the transportation of illicit drugs[|.] A majority of the drugs people bring into the country come from Afghanistan, Colombia, and the Netherlands[|.] According to the Federal Criminal Police Office, drug trafficking and smuggling operations had a profit of USD 229.5 million in 2008[|.] With the increasing scope of these organizations due to the economic and social integration of Europe, the Federal Criminal Police Office stressed the need for an international police force and for ministries within Germany to share information and resources in order to combat the growing threat of drug trafficking[|.] The main issues facing Germany and illicit drugs is that the country acts as a source of precursor chemicals for South American cocaine, a transshipment point and consumer of Southwest Asian heroin, a consumer of Latin American cocaine and European produced synthetic drugs, and Germany acts as a major financial center for these drug cartels[|.] **


 * [[image:qaeda1.jpg width="350" height="200" align="right" caption="This picture captures the person who was responsible for the three videos that were made public in the weeks leading up to the German national elections by radical Islamic terrorist groups." link="http://frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/qaeda1.jpg"]]Even though Germany has not been a direct victim of a terrorist attack, the country has been on high alert several times since 2006. According to the Research Division on the Middle East, Germany security forces remain ill prepared to handle a terrorist threat posed by radical Islamic terrorists[|.]Organized jihadist groups such as al-Qaeda, al-Qaeda in Iraq, and ****Ansar al-Islam all use Germany as a support base in order to pla ****n attacks and use the country as a refuge[|.] The latest threat made by Islamic ra ****dical terrorists was m ****a ****de days before the national elections on 25 September 2009. These threats were made via an internet video posted on the intern ****et[|.] The Federal Ministry of the Interior, added that they noticed an incr ****ease of threats on Germany by a ****<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal;">l-Qaeda in the past year[|,] and this can be attributed to the continued presence of Germany in the War of Afghanistan. In the video, the speaker told Muslims to stay out of Germany, which implied that an attack on the country was imminent[|.]Throughout the days running up to the national elections in Germany there was a series of three videos that radical Islamic terrorists released that threatened Germany with an act of terror if the German government did not remove the 4,200 troops currently deployed in Afghanistan[|.] **

<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 12pt;">As of February 2009 there were approximately one million illegal immigrants living in Germany[|.] A majority of the illegal immigrants that come into Germany come from Africa, Eastern Europe, and Latin America[|.] In Germany, a law states that people who prolong or support the st<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 12pt;">ay of illegal immigrants are subject to penalties under the law [|.] T<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 12pt;">his law limits a doctor's ability to preform medical procedures or offer any type of aid to illegal immigrants and it also limits illegal immigrants' chances of obtaining an education in Germany. Because of this ordeal, many group s are currently pressing for amnesty of illegal immigrants[|,] however, other groups of German citizens oppose illegal immigrants gaining amnesty. This is because they fear that it would lead to a large influx of illegal immigrants who would take jobs away from natural born German citizens,<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 12pt;"> and this cannot be taken lightly due to the 9.1% of the country currently unemployed [|.] <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 12pt;">To combat the growing protests on both aisles of the amnesty debate, the Berlin government is considering giving health care insurance to illegal immigrants[|.] <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 12pt;">The government would do this by giving illegal immigrants an anonymous health care card and would operate on a case by case basis[|.] However, this would add a substantial burden on the Berlin government because the money needed to pay for illegal immigrant's health care card would come from the health care system, thus putting a significant burden on the government.

<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal;">Analytic confidence for this assessment is medium. Source reliability ranges from medium to high. There was no conflict among sources. <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 12pt;"> **<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 12pt;">The analyst did not use any structured analytical methods for this assessment. The analyst had a low level of expertise, however the analyst did work with a team of three analysts who concentrated their efforts in Western Europe. The subject matter was minimally complex but there was adequate time to compile research and to analyze the issue.
 * <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Analytic Confidence:

<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Marc Weinheimer **<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,fantasy; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;"> <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 12pt;">
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