Spain+SFAR

Andrew Mayher, //Writing For Intelligence 1 November 2009 //

=**It Is Likely The Transnational Issues Of Organized Crime And Terrorism Pose The Most Significant Threat To Spain **=

It is likely the transnational issues of organized crime and terrorism pose the most significant threat to Spain. It is highly likely organized crime groups will remain involved and become more involved with crimes such as migrant smuggling, human trafficking, money laundering, and drug trafficking[|.] Organized crime groups target Spain, in part, because the country's geographic location serves as an entry point into the EU[|.] It is also highly likely Islamic and Separatist terrorist groups make up the largest terrorism based threat to the EU and Spain[|.]
 * Executive Summary: **

15 of the worlds 20 developed countries are in Europe while 20 of the worlds least developed countries are in Africa. Because of this, it is no surprise that tens of thousands of migrants try to enter Europe illegally[|.] The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime estimates 300,000 migrants attempt to enter Europe illegally each year. The main passage for migrants is Spain because of its geographic location[|.] Most migrants make it into Europe through the enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla of Spain or through Morocco to the Spanish mainland or the Canary Islands[|.] The European Union has donated over USD 60 million to Morocco to stop illegal immigration; this has significantly reduced migration to Spain[|.] The financial contribution makes it more difficult to enter Spain, which organized crime groups use to their advantage by providing a service for profit and facilitating the entrance of migrants into the EU. According to the European Police Office (Europol), 80 percent of migrants are facilitated by some form of organized crime to some extent[|.] The UN estimates that from African to Europe alone there is a market of USD 300 million per year of migrant smuggling[|.]According to the UN, the organized crime groups smuggling migrants into the EU stem from numerous origins such as Morocco, Algeria, Mauritania, China, Nigeria and Arab states[|.]
 * Discussion: **

Organized crime groups also involve themselves with human trafficking, specifically women for sexual purposes, using the same routes into the EU as in migrant smuggling[|.]According to EUROPOL, human trafficking with organized crime involvement is rising, although it is difficult to quantify; human trafficking occurs in all EU member states[|.]EUROPOL states it is hard to detect and easy to human traffic in the EU because of the ease of movement between countries as a result of the Schengen Convention[|.] Organized crime groups from Russia and Latin America target Spain to launder money for several reasons, some being Spain has a high tourism industry which creates an easy market to hide dirty money in and Spain has many banks set up in Latin America not adhering strictly to certain laws which conveniently allows drug cartels to launder money[|.] According to the United Nations, Spain has the highest cocaine prevalence rates in Europe, although Spain's overall drug usage is stabilizing[|.] Drug trafficking creates many opportunities for organized crime groups to profit, particularly in the transportation and distribution phases.

According to the EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report, 98 percent of separatist terrorism in the EU occurs in Spain and France in regards to the Basque region[|.] The primary separatist terrorist organizations in Spain are ETA (Basque Homeland and Freedom) and the ETA's youth organization SEGI and they are responsible for 397 terrorist attacks in 2008. These groups primarily utilized IEDs, and target government buildings, banks, public transportation and law enforcement[|.] Although there was only one Islamic terrorist attack in the EU which occurred in 2008, it is still considered to be a significant problem because Islamic terrorist continue to plan attacks in the EU and Spain[|.] In 2008, Spain arrested 61 people will affiliation to Islamic terrorist[|.] Some of the people arrested held citizenship from Pakistan and India[|.] Islamic terrorist cells in Spain provide fake passwords, employment contracts, money, and safe accommodations to fellow Islamic Terrorists[|.]

 ****Analytic confidence for this assessment is //m// ****//edium//. Source reliability ranges from medium to high. There was ** **no conflict among my sources.  **The analyst did not use any structured analytical methods for this assessment. The analyst had a low level of expertise, however, the analyst did work with a team of three analysts who concentrated their efforts in Western Europe. The subject matter was minimally complex but there was adequate time to compile research and to analyze the issue. **
 * <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Analytic Confidence:

<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal;">For questions ****<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal;"> or comments, please contact the author: **<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal;">
 * <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal;">Andrew Mayher **

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